A new report from the National Interest warns that Europe's next energy shock will come from peak oil, not war or climate. The European Union imported 435 million tonnes of crude oil in 2025 and spent more than €212 billion on it, leaving the bloc exposed as exporting nations approach terminal production decline.
Europe faces a slower, harder-to-detect energy threat than the wars and weather shocks that have battered it since 2022, according to a new report from the National Interest. The report warns that as exporting countries pass peak production, the European Union's heavy reliance on imported crude leaves it without an easy way to diversify away from trouble.
A pattern of short-term scrambles
The continent is now in its third energy crisis in four years. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Europe depended on Russian producers for 40% of its natural gas, a dependence that threw markets into turmoil as the EU struggled to set and maintain sanctions on Russian energy exports.
Since then, Red Sea attacks in 2023 and 2024 and the United States and Israel's war in Iran have repeatedly disrupted supply routes. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut into a passage that carried one-fifth of the world's oil and gas trade on an average day before the conflict began.
Still dependent despite cutting Russian imports
Europe has made progress weaning itself off Russian fossil fuels, but it remains reliant on foreign oil from other sources. According to official figures from the European Council, the EU imported 435 million tonnes of crude oil in 2025.
That import bill amounted to spending of more than €212 billion. Many of the bloc's key suppliers have already started to see waning exports as wells age and reserves run down.
Why terminal decline is different
The National Interest report states: "Unlike wars or sanctions, terminal decline does not create an immediate supply shock", and instead it gradually reduces the amount of oil available for export. As more producing nations pass their own peaks, fewer will have spare output to offer when markets tighten, meaning diversification alone may become harder for import-dependent Europe over time.
Fallout from that scenario would not stop at market turmoil and energy poverty. Without energy autonomy, the continent could become vulnerable to foreign pressure it might otherwise avoid.
Source: The National Interest
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