The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee meets Sept. 15-16, with markets pricing a 58.4% chance of a 25-basis-point hike after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report. The decision lands Sept. 16 at 2 p.m. ET, days after fresh August CPI data due Sept. 11.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept. 15-16, with markets pricing a 58.4% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike, according to CME FedWatch data. The odds firmed after U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, far above the roughly 55,000 that had been expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%.
The committee will issue its statement at 2 p.m. ET on Sept. 16. A press conference follows the same day, at 2:30 p.m. ET. This meeting also carries an updated Summary of Economic Projections, giving policymakers a formal channel to signal their outlook on inflation, employment and rates.
CME FedWatch data show a 58.4% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, against a 41.6% chance rates stay unchanged. That would move the target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. Earlier in the week, futures markets had put the odds of an increase at around 59%, according to Reuters, after the payrolls data crossed newswires.
The August CPI report is due Sept. 11, days before the Fed meets, and will hand policymakers fresh inflation figures ahead of their decision. Wages also firmed: average hourly earnings rose 3.1% from a year earlier, a sign that a robust labor market could support a more restrictive policy.
The Fed will publish its decision and statement on its official website alongside the press conference. Investors will also be able to watch the press conference streamed on the Fed's site starting at 2:30 p.m. ET. Sharp reactions could hit stocks, treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, and a surprise hike may also add volatility for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Source: CoinGape
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