Fidelity Digital Assets says bitcoin's strongest month since November 2024 does not prove the bear market is over. Research chief Chris Kuiper says the coin may have bottomed in July, but he isn't ruling out a fresh low in November 2026.
No Verdict From Fidelity
Fidelity's fourth-quarter crypto outlook says the recent push higher in price does not guarantee the bear market is over. Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, says "the bottom could already have occurred in July", though he adds a new low could still form in November or later.
Bitcoin Leads a Broad August Gain
Bitcoin posted its largest green month since November 2024 in August, climbing more than 25% in a single late-August week while ether rose 34.1% and solana added 28% over the same stretch. The coin is trading near $81,000 after briefly touching $82,000 late Thursday, roughly 30% above the sub-$65,000 range it held through June and July, though still short of its October record of $126,080.
Inflows and Policy Catalysts Line Up
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $731 million of net inflows on Sept. 3, led by Blackrock's IBIT at $454 million, while ether ETFs added a further $141 million the same day. Fidelity also pointed to stablecoin transaction volume now running at 2.3 times that of Visa, alongside a real-world asset tokenization market it said has grown faster in 2026 than in any prior year.
On policy, the note flagged the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, with the Senate cloture vote scheduled for Sept. 15. Polymarket traders were pricing 2026 passage at just 13% at the end of August.
Why November Still Matters
The November date traces to bitcoin's tendency to form bear-market troughs at roughly four-year intervals, with the last cycle low arriving in November 2022. Fidelity cautioned that the pattern is not guaranteed to repeat, and Kuiper noted past cycles haven't run precisely four years, making the pattern unreliable for timing.
Galaxy Research argued last month that only a weekly close above the 50-week moving average, then sitting near $82,470, would confirm the June 30 low as the bottom. This week's push to $82,000 brushed that line without securing a weekly close above it — leaving Fidelity's research chief still unwilling to call the bottom.
Source: Bitcoin News
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