TL;DR: Gold lost nearly 12% this June quarter and silver slipped 17.6%, breaking a five-quarter winning streak. A shift toward a more restrictive Federal Reserve, a stronger dollar, easing geopolitical tension and profit-taking drove the slide. Most brokerages have trimmed or pushed back near-term targets but none have turned structurally bearish.
Gold and silver are closing the June quarter sharply lower, ending a five-quarter winning streak. Gold has lost nearly 12% this quarter, its steepest fall since December 2016, while silver slipped 17.6%, its sharpest drop since June 2022. Measured from their record highs the damage is larger: gold has fallen 24% from its all-time peak of $5,417 an ounce, and silver has dropped around 47% from its January high of $117 an ounce.
The fall follows a steep climb. Gold had risen 65% in 2025 and 28% in 2024, while silver surged 148% in 2025 on top of a 22% gain in 2024.
Several forces hit at once
Several pressures are converging on the market. The biggest is the shifting US interest rate outlook. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to stay restrictive for longer, and some investors are pricing in additional hikes this year as rising oil prices keep inflation elevated. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has reaffirmed the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation, and the Fed has raised its 2026 inflation projections.
Higher rates make yield-bearing assets like bonds more attractive than gold, which pays nothing. Because both metals are priced globally in dollars, a stronger dollar also makes them costlier for buyers using other currencies, which hurts demand. Easing geopolitical tension added to the slide as safe-haven flows that built up around the US-Iran standoff began reversing, sending money back into equities. Traders have also been booking profits on positions that had grown crowded and overbought, triggering a domino effect as more positions were cut.
Silver has fallen faster than gold because it plays two roles at once, both a precious metal and an industrial one, which makes it more volatile and more exposed to swings in manufacturing demand.
Central banks keep buying
Gold has corrected despite record buying by central banks. Data show central banks bought a net 244 tonnes in the first quarter, the strongest start to a year in some time, and resumed purchases in April after a brief pause in March. A World Gold Council survey found that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to rise over the next year, suggesting structural demand remains intact. ETF investors moved faster, cutting positions in May and June after strong buying in April.
Brokerages trim, but stay constructive
Most research desks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, have trimmed or pushed back near-term price targets without turning structurally bearish. Across most research desks the long-term case for gold rests on central bank diversification away from the dollar, high government debt and persistent inflation risk. Bank of America has kept its long-term $6,000 gold target intact, expecting it to take longer to reach, while BMO Capital Markets still sees gold reaching $5,000 by the first quarter of next year.
Source: Moneycontrol
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
