Gold, silver and platinum group metals were the weakest-performing major commodities in the first half of 2026, reversing their 2025 leadership as lithium and oil moved to the front. Olive Resource Capital still returned roughly 15% for the half, drawing its best gains from precious metals equities rather than the metals themselves.
Precious metals led the resource complex in 2025. In the first half of 2026 they fell to the back across the commodities space: platinum group metals, silver and gold were the weakest-performing major commodities of the half, according to Olive Resource Capital's Samuel Pelaez, who described the move as consolidation after the previous year's run.
Lithium and oil lead the rotation
Lithium was the strongest major commodity in the half, a call the firm's Derek Macpherson had made for 2026 after two to three years of underinvestment in the space. Oil came second: even after retreating from over $100 to roughly $70 per barrel, it remained up approximately 20% year-to-date, which Pelaez called the shining commodity.
The pair had argued in a December 2025 discussion that the rally needed to broaden beyond precious metals, with copper and other industrial commodities participating. Copper behaved as expected, but iron ore did not, which Pelaez attributed to new supply that came online in late 2025.
Why gold cooled
On gold specifically, Macpherson noted that some central banks sold gold holdings to defend their currencies during a period of market stress, which weighed on the price. He suggested the dynamic could reverse if those banks later rebuild reserves at lower levels.
Yet weak metal prices did not sink the fund's precious metals holdings, an outcome that separates trading gold as a commodity from owning the miners. Those stocks delivered the fund's best returns for the half, which Pelaez tied to buying producers and developers with company-specific catalysts rather than direct commodity exposure. On that approach, Pelaez said a holding with its own catalyst can outperform and re-rate even if the gold price does nothing.
Positioning for the second half
Olive returned approximately 15% for the half, a figure that improved once buybacks were counted. Macpherson added that three portfolio companies were acquired during the period. The firm has carried above-average cash since February and is now redeploying it cautiously.
Capital has gone toward energy and uranium, where the firm cites favourable second-half seasonality and demand tied to electrification, grid security and AI-driven power. Management continues to avoid development-stage exposure in West Africa, citing jurisdictional risk in Mali, Burkina Faso and Ghana, favouring developers in North and South America instead.
Source: Crux Investor
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
