Gold futures held above 4,000 on July 15 as softer CPI and cooler PPI data trimmed bets on a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. The CME FedWatch Tool put the odds of a July hike at 15%, while spot gold sits roughly flat for the second half and remains down more than 5% year to date.
Gold futures held above 4,000 on July 15, trading in a tight range as traders weighed softer consumer and producer price data. The inflation prints came in at 0.2% versus the 0.3% forecast, according to CME Group market strategist Phillip Streible, curbing expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike.
Cooler inflation shifts the rate picture
That softer data reset the near-term rate map. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows a 15% chance of a hike in July, with a 50% possibility remaining for September. Streible cautioned that energy shocks from Middle East tensions keep the outlook uncertain, because higher oil prices could feed back into inflation and force the Fed’s hand.
The rest of the metals complex moved little. Silver futures edged lower alongside gold, while copper futures held unchanged as traders awaited White House tariff decisions. Platinum emerged as a standout, catching a bid on tightening supply and steady industrial demand.
Gold sits flat as tensions fail to lift it
The tight range fits a broader stall. Spot gold has traded around $4,000, leaving it essentially flat since the start of the second half and down more than 5% year to date, even as the U.S. and Iran returned to fighting. Silver, which recently traded around $59, has fallen almost 20% so far this year.
A slate of analysts has cut their forecasts, pointing to hawkish statements from the Fed, though they still appear optimistic that a comeback could materialize in the back half of the year. UBS’ Chief Investment Office in late June called for gold to hit $5,200 over the next 12 months, citing a likely weaker dollar and robust central bank buying. Others point instead to gold mining stocks, which Bank of America analysts said carry 12% earnings yields, the highest of any sector.
The near-term risk still runs the other way. Analyst Hu said re-escalating tension around the Strait of Hormuz and a Fed that stays hawkish are big downside risks for precious metal prices.
Sources: CME Group (snippet-based), Investopedia
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