Spot gold traded at $4,112.61 an ounce on Thursday, holding near $4,100 as central bank buying offsets pressure from surging Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.35%, its highest since 2002, while the People's Bank of China added 740,000 ounces to its reserves in September.
Gold held its ground near $4,100 on Thursday even as bond yields surged to multi-decade highs. Spot gold traded at $4,112.61 an ounce at 11:57 a.m. ET, up $4.25, or 0.1%, from Wednesday's $4,108.36 close. The metal reached $4,143.32 in European hours before slipping back toward the session's $4,103.48 low.
Bullion is far from its highs. The price sits 27% below its January 29 record of $5,602.23. It is also down 5% for 2026, and it lost 6.52% in September, snapping a two-month winning streak.
Rising yields raise gold's opportunity cost
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.35% on Thursday morning, its highest level since 2002. The 30-year bond yielded 5.70% over the same stretch. The 10-year inflation-protected yield, meanwhile, stood at 2.91% on Tuesday, meaning investors can earn a real, government-guaranteed return for holding Treasurys instead of gold, which pays nothing. The dollar index reached 102.49 this week, an 18-month high, adding a currency headwind on top of the yield pressure.
However, sovereign buyers are leaning the other way. The People's Bank of China added 740,000 ounces in September, its largest monthly purchase since it resumed buying in November 2024. Meanwhile, global gold ETFs absorbed a record $31 billion in the third quarter. Those flows explain why the $4,100 level has held through four tests in eight sessions.
A geopolitical shock that barely moved the metal
Overnight, Brent crude jumped 4.89% to $105.10 a barrel after President Trump said he does not want a deal with Iran and reports surfaced that the Pentagon is preparing for renewed large-scale strikes. Yet gold's reaction was muted: the metal moved only a few dollars on the news, a sign that eight months of war headlines have left the market less reactive to incremental escalation.
The Federal Reserve's own posture is central to gold's stuck range. Minutes from the September meeting, released Wednesday, showed all 19 officials unanimously backed the quarter-point hike to 3.75%–4.00%. Futures markets now imply a 70% probability of another move in December. Weekly jobless claims have held near 197,000, giving the central bank little reason to pause and keeping real yields elevated near gold's $4,200 cap.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
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