Gold has slipped back toward $4,330 this week, struggling to extend last week's rebound as markets weigh the prospect of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. The metal is testing key moving averages and Fibonacci support, and the battle around $4,300 to $4,330 could determine whether this is a consolidation phase or the start of a deeper retracement.
Gold is struggling to build on last week's rebound, slipping back toward $4,330 this week. The market is digesting a more hawkish Federal Reserve and the prospect of rates staying higher for longer, a backdrop that is weighing on the non-yielding metal.
The bond market is calmer this week and risk sentiment is picking up, yet gold is still moving cautiously. The overall rates picture remains a headwind for the metal even as broader conditions ease.
Hourly chart shows a tight standoff
On the hourly chart, gold has spent the past few sessions compressed around its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. Buyers tried to push higher last week, but the move fell short of clearing $4,400.
That has left price action contained, repeatedly crossing and testing the two moving averages around the $4,330 to $4,360 region. Neither buyers nor sellers have established much near-term control, and the latest drop back below the confluence of those averages suggests scope for a further push lower in the session ahead.
Daily chart puts $4,300 to $4,330 in focus
The daily chart carries more weight. After an attempted break lower last week, the rebound on Thursday and Friday saw gold push back above both the 100-day moving average and the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement level of the swing higher from July to September.
Those levels are back in focus, with the 100-day moving average at $4,316 and the 50.0 Fib retracement around $4,328, putting the $4,300 to $4,330 region in play as the key support zone. A sustained break below that would weaken the recovery structure and expose the 61.8 Fib retracement near $4,241, which also lines up with last week's swing low.
On the upside, a firm clear of $4,400 would make the technical picture look more constructive again, opening the door to $4,500 to $4,525 as the next hurdle.
Gold is not breaking down for now, but its inability to hold the recent rebound is telling. With the Fed keeping markets focused on the possibility of further tightening and geopolitical issues still in the mix, the battle around $4,300 to $4,330 could determine whether this is a consolidation phase or the start of a deeper retracement.
Source: Investinglive
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