Spot gold gained roughly 0.7% on September 16, 2026, trading around $4,324 to $4,328 per ounce as the dollar softened ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Markets are pricing in a 92% to 93% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, but traders are focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for signals on what comes next.
Gold climbed as the dollar lost strength on Tuesday, with spot prices gaining roughly 0.7% to trade around $4,324 to $4,328 per ounce. Intraday prices briefly touched $4,384 during more active sessions. Futures contracts followed the move higher, rising approximately 0.8% to $4,365.
A hike almost nobody disputes
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest policy decision within hours, and according to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in a 92% to 93% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at this meeting. That consensus turns the rate hike itself into something closer to a formality.
Traders are instead watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference, where the language around future moves will matter more than the hike everyone already expects. Higher rates typically make gold less attractive since the metal pays no yield, but the US dollar's softening on Tuesday created enough room for gold to push higher, at least for now.
What pulled gold down, and what pulled it back
Earlier in the week, gold had slipped to its lowest level in over a month. A stronger dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and oil prices running above $100 per barrel, at points exceeding $108, combined to weigh on the metal during the September 14 to 15 window.
The reversal on September 16 came as Brent crude eased back from those highs and the dollar pulled back, removing two of the three headwinds that had pressed gold lower. Treasury yields remained a factor, but not enough of one to offset the dollar's retreat.
The risk ahead
If the Fed hikes as expected and Warsh signals that additional tightening is on the table, the dollar could strengthen again on the back of that hawkish guidance. Gold is trading at levels that reflect a significant accumulation of risk premium over the past several years, within a broader 2026 trading range of $4,200 to $4,700 per ounce.
Warsh's press conference will be the first major signal of whether the Fed sees a path to pausing or whether another hike is already being prepared.
Source: Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
