Gold pushed to $4,617 and is testing resistance at $4,627, with the RSI nearing overbought territory and a double top pattern 95% complete. Separately, the U.S. Treasury's expanded debt buyback program has revived dollar debasement concerns and lifted prediction-market odds on gold reaching $4,700 this month.
Gold's five-hour chart shows bulls pushing the metal to $4,617, just below the closely watched $4,627 level. That price marks the site of the metal's previous high, and the last candle closed at $4,616.04 after gold cleared both its 200-period and 20-period moving averages.
RSI Nears Overbought as Double Top Forms
The trend strength reading sits at ADX 41.68, keeping bulls in control for now. But the RSI has climbed to 69.87, just shy of overbought. Price is also hugging the upper Bollinger Band at $4,645.03, and a double top pattern at $4,627.10 is 95% complete, a setup traders watch for either a breakout or a reversal.
That combination has produced a $4,530 to $4,627 no-trade zone for fresh positions, since the risk-reward skews unfavorably this close to resistance. Chasing a breakout above $4,627 risks a fakeout unless volume confirms the move, while betting on a reversal too early exposes traders to a short squeeze in what remains a trending market.
Treasury Buyback Expansion Fuels Debasement Bets
Separately, the U.S. Treasury expanded its longer-dated debt buyback program on August 19, and the operations now involve at least $4 billion for 10- to 30-year securities, doubling from previous levels. Market participants have interpreted the move as support for long-end Treasury liquidity and a way to ease borrowing costs.
However, the expansion has also revived dollar debasement flows, as shown by the rise in gold and bitcoin prices that followed the announcement. Prediction markets now put the odds of gold reaching $4,700 in August at 44% YES, up from 22% a day earlier.
Traders will be watching Federal Reserve commentary and inflation data such as CPI and PCE for further direction, alongside any shift in Treasury yields that could tip gold's next move toward $4,627 or back toward its recent range.
Sources: Investing.com, Crypto Briefing
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