Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI price forecasts by $5 a barrel, expecting Middle East shipping disruptions to persist into 2027. The upgrade comes as Iran threatens Gulf energy infrastructure and Brent trades near $100 a barrel following a weekend of strikes between the U.S. and Iran.
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent and WTI crude oil price forecasts on Sunday, expecting shipping disruptions in the Middle East to persist into next year. The bank's commodities team, led by Daan Struyven, now sees Brent/WTI at $85/$80 a barrel for December 2026 and $80/$75 for 2027, $5 higher than its previous forecast.
The revision follows a run-up in prices: Brent spot futures have climbed to $97 a barrel, and the options-implied probability of Brent topping $100 by March 2027 has jumped to about 25%, from roughly 6% a month ago. Still, Goldman called its own price upgrade modest.
Iran threatens Gulf energy infrastructure
Oil extended its climb on Tuesday, with Brent rising 1.6% to $98.73 a barrel while WTI jumped 2.9% to $94.14.
The gains follow a weekend of tit-for-tat strikes between the U.S. and Iran, after which Iranian officials warned that U.S. oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf could be targeted in retaliation. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned: "Strike our assets, and you get struck. We've already proven it."
Iran has also said it will introduce a new restricted zone in the Persian Gulf, raising concerns that tighter maritime controls could slow tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already pushed prices sharply higher: Brent gained 8% last week, while WTI rose nearly 10%.
Goldman sees upside risk to $120, downside to the $60s
Goldman said risks to its forecast remain tilted to the upside, especially near-term. In an upside scenario, Brent could exceed $120 a barrel if 2027 average Gulf oil output runs 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with a 0.5 million barrel-per-day shortfall in its base case; intensified shipping attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are the most likely trigger. In a downside scenario, Brent could fall into the $60s in 2027 if Gulf output climbs 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels.
Inventories have barely moved
Despite the conflict, OECD commercial oil inventories have barely drawn since the war began, which Goldman attributes to a smaller-than-expected deficit and stock draws concentrated in strategic reserves, on-water storage and China. Global landed oil stocks have fallen from 9.1 billion barrels before the war to 8.6 billion barrels today, still above minimum operational levels. When visible global stocks hit their all-time low in November 2024, Brent traded at $76.
Higher prices are also feeding into the inflation outlook: Brent hit a six-week high on Tuesday after rising for a third straight session, a move that could make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting interest rates.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News, Commodities & Futures News, Economy News
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