Goldman Sachs says Tesla's low-cost Cybercab could give the company a per-mile cost edge over robotaxi rivals, but the bank says software performance, not manufacturing cost, will decide how fast Tesla can scale the business. Goldman kept a Neutral rating and a $360 price target on the stock.
Tesla hosted a Cybercab launch event in Austin on Sept. 3 and has begun offering robotaxi rides in the vehicle, according to a Goldman Sachs research note. The company said it had completed 1 million miles of unsupervised robotaxi operations. Tesla is also seeking operators interested in owning Cybercab fleets, running hubs and infrastructure, or hosting robotaxi events.
A cheaper vehicle could widen the margin
Goldman said Tesla's emphasis on a low-cost vehicle, backed by its unboxed manufacturing approach and camera-only sensor system, could strengthen the economics of its robotaxi business. Tesla is targeting a $20,000-$30,000 Cybercab cost at scale. If it hits that target, the analysts estimate a potential $0.05-$0.30 per-mile cost advantage over autonomous-vehicle competitors with upfront costs of $50,000-$100,000.
Software, not hardware, decides how far Tesla can scale
But the analysts said the bigger issue for investors is whether Tesla's artificial-intelligence approach can let its self-driving software scale rapidly and operate across a wider geographic area. A broader operating footprint would let Tesla generate more revenue while spreading its vehicle cost base across more miles, making software a potentially larger driver of robotaxi economics than the price of the vehicle itself.
Safety data and accident rate
Tesla's recent safety data for its supervised Full Self-Driving system showed lower rates of certain safety events. In North America, vehicles using FSD Supervised on the company's fourth-generation hardware recorded roughly 75%-85% fewer automatic emergency braking events and 40%-90% fewer minor and major collisions than Tesla vehicles not using FSD, according to the report. In Europe, FSD Supervised vehicles recorded about 70%-95% fewer automatic emergency braking events in most cases, though Goldman cautioned that the European data came from Tesla-trained engineering operators and therefore may not be directly comparable with the North American figures. Tesla has also received provisional FSD approval in the Netherlands and four other European Union countries.
Goldman estimated that Tesla's fully driverless robotaxi operation experienced an accident, regardless of fault, every 50,000 to 70,000 miles, based on available NHTSA crash data through mid-July and Tesla disclosures for Austin, Dallas and Houston. The analysts excluded data from before January, when Tesla began fully driverless rides.
The bank maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla, with a 12-month price target of $360, against a closing price of $376.37 on Sept. 3. Goldman sees an illustrative upside scenario of about $500 and a downside scenario of roughly $150.
The analysts said key downside risks include slower electric-vehicle demand, greater competition, tariffs, delays to FSD and other products, and operational and margin pressures, while faster EV adoption, earlier product launches and a larger-than-expected contribution from AI products such as FSD, Optimus and robotaxis could provide upside.
Source: Investing.com
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