Gold has climbed for a third straight week, lifted by a soft dollar and fading Fed rate-hike expectations. A busy week of US fiscal and trade news, inflation data, and a Jackson Hole speech from Kevin Warsh could decide gold's next move, with $4,500-$4,541 as support and $4,655 and $4,800 as the next resistance tests.
Gold has started this week on the front foot after climbing for a third consecutive week with impressive gains. The metal has been boosted by a soft US dollar amid collapsing rate-hike expectations from the Fed. This week brings several fundamental events that could set the tone for gold and other financial markets for weeks to come.
Fiscal and Trade Risks Weigh on the Dollar
Investors are watching the bond and oil markets for direction, as today marks the so-called "economic D-Day" for Iran, while stress in the Treasury market calls for some kind of US fiscal consolidation. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to announce a new package of sanctions on Iran, and any significant re-escalation of the tariff war would probably be negative for the dollar. Few expect meaningful spending cuts or tax increases, given the Trump administration's pro-growth policies.
Beyond fiscal and trade policy, the macro calendar stays busy. Wednesday brings the release of US core PCE inflation data for July. Kevin Warsh delivers a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. He is unlikely to provide much clarity on what the Fed will do with monetary policy next month, but Warsh will be under pressure to reinforce the Fed's inflation-fighting credentials.
Gold Keeps Ignoring Rising Yields
Much like throughout 2025 and early 2026, gold has risen in recent weeks alongside bond yields, even though higher yields usually diminish the metal's appeal because it pays no yield. But yields are rising not because of rising rate-hike expectations — they are rising because of concerns about unsustainable debt levels in the US, Japan, and elsewhere, and the rising cost of servicing that debt. For now, the dollar remains under pressure, and unless Warsh manages to reverse the course in bond yields, gold could continue to find support on the dips.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Gold has already cleared many resistance levels during its sharp repricing higher in recent weeks, and some of those broken levels are now expected to provide support on any short-term dips. The area between $4,500 and $4,541 is a key support zone where the 200-day average meets a prior resistance level, with the next support zone between $4,400 and $4,450. The line in the sand sits at $4,324, the most recent low before the rally — a break there would put bullish bets in question.
On the upside, $4,655 is the next resistance level to watch, followed by round handles at $4,700 and $4,800. The long-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level comes in at $4,965, followed by the psychological level of $5,000.
Source: Investing.com (Commodities Analysis & Opinion)
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