Gold has clawed back to around $4,123 after sliding as low as $3,942 in late June, but analyst Marco Turatti calls the recovery a technical bounce rather than a trend change. Rising long-term real yields and a collapsing breakeven inflation rate keep the macro backdrop against the metal.
Gold traded near $4,123 and was down 0.98% on the session, roughly where it began June after a sharp round trip lower. Selling had earlier pushed the metal as low as $3,942 before it built a base around $3,960 between June 24 and July 1. The recent rally, according to FXStreet analyst Marco Turatti, is nothing more than a technical bounce.
Reuters reported that gold edged up from a near one-week low as investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting, with fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and renewed inflation concerns capping the advance.
Real yields still work against gold
The macro case has not turned in gold's favor. A handful of inflation releases came in slightly better than expected, particularly in the Eurozone and Australia, but Turatti points to a bigger shift: major central banks moving away from forward guidance, a change championed by the Fed's new Chair, Walsh. Policymakers at the Sintra forum reinforced concern that inflation remains too high despite falling oil prices.
Yet yields did not react as expected. The US 10-year Treasury yield sits only about 4 basis points higher than on June 17, while the 2-year yield is 3 basis points lower at 4.135%. What collapsed instead was the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which fell from 2.50% in mid-May to 2.24%.
Long-term real yields — the variable Turatti says has the strongest inverse correlation to gold — have edged higher to around 2.26%, far from supportive.
Trendline caps the rebound
On the charts, Turatti attributes the bounce to a bullish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart since June 10, when gold still traded near the $4,360 pivot. That divergence, he writes, paved the way for the consolidation around $3,960, where gold had become heavily oversold. But a descending trendline still caps the move, coming in around $4,260; only a sustained break above it would turn his view cautiously constructive.
Overhead resistance stacks up further. The 21-day moving average sits near current levels at $4,146, while the 50-day moving average stands much higher at $4,381, close to the $4,360 pivot. With the daily RSI recovered to 45 but still bearish, Turatti treats rallies as selling opportunities and flags a medium-to-long-term downside target in the $3,300-$3,600 range.
Sources: FXStreet, Reuters (snippet-based)
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