Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, but refined-product shipments sit at only 35% to 40%. Qatar's LNG loadings are also rising, to roughly half of pre-war levels, while Doha lines up long-term US supply.
Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered to 80% to 85% of pre-war levels, including pipeline shipments, while refined-product exports remain at around 35% to 40%. Fereidun Fesharaki, chairman emeritus of industry consultant FGE NexantECA, gave the figures last week.
The uneven recovery shows Gulf producers prioritizing crude oil shipments over refined products as the Hormuz chokepoint remains vulnerable.
Drone risk keeps refined exports muted
Vortexa senior market analyst Xavier Tang offered an explanation for the gap. He said: "Oil infrastructure such as refineries remains susceptible to drone strikes".
Tang added that this has led Gulf producers to prioritize crude shipments.
Qatar LNG loadings reach about half of pre-war levels
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Qatar's liquefied natural gas loadings reached 13 to 15 shipments per 10-day period on a moving-average basis this month, up from about 11 in October. That is roughly half of pre-war levels.
Europe stands to benefit from any pickup in Qatari supply. Its natural gas inventories are well below seasonal norms, and gas prices trade around 82 euros per megawatt-hour, down from more than 100 euros before last week's positive diplomatic signals.
Qatar signs for US LNG as a hedge
Qatar is hedging against what could be years of Hormuz uncertainty. It has agreed to buy up to 7 million tons a year of US LNG from Cheniere and Woodside, with deliveries beginning in 2030 and 2031.
This year's US-Iran conflict knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar's export capacity, costing an estimated $20 billion in annual revenue.
Source: Oilprice.com
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