The Houthi capture of Yemen's Red Sea coastline is strengthening Iran's hand and forcing Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors to choose between absorbing rising economic costs or seeking accommodation with Tehran. Gulf foreign ministers are set to meet their Iranian counterpart in Oman as soon as Monday to discuss a temporary arrangement for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis now hold a position overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world's most important shipping arteries, opening a second pressure point that threatens the Saudi oil exports diverted from the Strait of Hormuz. Riyadh had rerouted much of its crude through Red Sea ports after the war effectively closed the Strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, but on Friday it closed the pipeline that carried that oil after it came under attack.
Iran squeezes two chokepoints at once
By threatening Red Sea shipping while Iran chokes off Hormuz, Tehran and the Houthis can raise oil prices and fuel inflation while narrowing the region's prospects of relying on Washington to resolve the crisis, according to regional officials and analysts. According to Reuters: "The Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb is a game changer", Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges said, adding that it hands the group far greater leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade.
Trump's reported refusal to agree to a Saudi request for the U.S. to strike the Houthis, combined with mounting economic costs, is reinforcing a view in some Gulf capitals that negotiations with Tehran are no longer a choice but a necessity for self-preservation, regional sources told Reuters.
Gulf ministers head to Oman
That shift may become visible as soon as Monday, when Gulf foreign ministers meet Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi in Oman as part of an Omani-Iran-backed effort to secure a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through Hormuz. A Gulf source said Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan will attend, with Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq also expected to take part; a Western diplomat said Kuwait would also attend, but Bahrain would not.
Separately, prediction-market pricing suggests the probability of the United States imposing its own fees on Hormuz passage has decreased, consistent with the view that Iran's strengthened regional position is shaping the odds.
A decades-old rivalry, sharpened
The Houthis, drawn from Yemen's Zaydi Shi'ite minority, fought a series of wars with Saudi Arabia before seizing Sanaa in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led intervention the following year. Despite years of air strikes, they survived and emerged as one of Iran's most effective regional allies. Former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller said the group is not a traditional proxy, since it can weaponize geography and affect the global oil economy directly.
Sources: Investing.com, CryptoBriefing
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