Hyperliquid traders are pricing Chinese robot maker Unitree near $93 a share ahead of its stock market debut, more than four times its $22.37 Shanghai IPO price. The gap between the pre-IPO perpetual futures price and the eventual public listing leaves leveraged positions on both sides exposed to liquidation once shares start trading.
Crypto traders are betting Unitree Robotics will be worth far more than its initial public offering implies once the Chinese robot maker lists on the public market. Unitree priced its Shanghai STAR Market offering at 150.80 yuan, or $22.37 a share, valuing the company at roughly $9 billion. Pre-IPO perpetual futures trading through Hyperliquid, however, changed hands between $92 and $94 on Friday, a valuation of about $38 billion, blockchain analytics firm Allium said.
A fast-growing robot maker
The premium reflects heavy demand for one of China's closely watched robotics companies. Founded in Hangzhou in 2016, Unitree makes four-legged and humanoid robots for research, industrial and consumer use. Its revenue reached $253 million last year, up 335%, while humanoid robot shipments topped 5,500, Allium's report said. The IPO was reportedly 8,000 times oversubscribed by retail investors, with trading expected to begin between Aug. 17 and Aug. 21.
A track record of price discovery
Pre-IPO perps don't grant ownership of the underlying company, and positions cannot convert into shares. Instead they let traders speculate on a company's eventual market price before its stock begins trading. Recent listings back the mechanism: a pre-IPO contract tracking Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT came within 2.5% of its Shanghai opening price at the bell in July. Hyperliquid traders also correctly anticipated in June that SpaceX would debut higher than its $135 IPO price.
Leveraged bets face a painful convergence
Unitree has already drawn meaningful activity: two Hyperliquid markets have accumulated $9.1 million in open interest and about $59 million in turnover. An opening near $45, double the IPO price, would still sit about 52% below the current perp price and could liquidate roughly 33% of long exposure. A $128 opening, nearly six times the IPO price, could instead liquidate an estimated 53% of short positions. According to CoinDesk: "Any open away from today's price forces one side of this market out", Allium said.
Positioning on Trade.xyz, the larger of the two venues, is nearly split, with $6.5 million long and $6.6 million short. Smaller traders lean more bearish, however, with bets below $50,000 running 70% short by value.
Source: CoinDesk
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