Intel shares jumped 11.3% to $91.13 on Thursday even as its trailing 12-month net loss reached about $11.3 billion. Most of that red ink traces to non-cash accounting charges rather than the underlying business, and a Motley Fool analysis argues Intel's revenue growth, margin expansion, and cash flow point to a profitable year before 2028.
Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) closed at $91.13 on Thursday, up 11.3% in a broad rebound across chip stocks, even after a trailing 12-month net loss of about $11.3 billion — on the surface, a sign that investors just bid up a money loser.
But the losses are mostly accounting, not operating. Intel's Q2 2026 revenue rose 25% year over year to $16.1 billion, above the top end of management's own forecast, yet the company posted an $11.0 billion net loss. Nearly all of it came from a $12.5 billion non-cash charge tied to marking to market shares held in escrow for the U.S. government under Intel's CHIPS Act agreement.
Adjusted profit already here
Strip that charge out, and non-GAAP net income was $1.5 billion in Q1 2026 and $2.2 billion in Q2, with $7.0 billion of operating cash flow in the quarter alone. The data center and AI segment grew revenue 59% year over year, while the foundry business expanded 31%.
Margins climbing toward Q3 guidance
Gross margin rose from 39.4% in Q1 2026 to 40.4% in Q2. Management's Q3 2026 guidance calls for 41% alongside GAAP earnings of $0.31 per share.
What a profitable 2027 would take
Covering Intel's projected $23 billion of 2026 operating expenses at a 41% margin takes roughly $56 billion of revenue. The company is already past that pace: first-half revenue reached $29.7 billion. Q3 guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion implies an annual run rate near $65 billion. Still, the first half's $14.7 billion of reported losses is too deep for two profitable quarters to erase this year.
Motley Fool analyst Daniel Sparks argues 10% revenue growth next year would generate about $71 billion in sales and a bottom line comfortably in the black. According to Sparks: "before 2028, Intel posts a profitable year." He cautions additional restructuring charges or further escrow losses could still push the GAAP figure lower.
Foundry and AI spending back the turnaround
CEO Lip-Bu Tan is leaning on foundry services and AI chip development to sustain the momentum. Foundry revenue reached $5.4 billion in Q1 2026, a 16% year-over-year increase. Intel also raised its 2026 capital-expenditure guidance above $20 billion to fund AI infrastructure.
That forecast may matter less for the stock than it seems. Intel's market capitalization already reflects optimism: the company was worth about $459 billion at Thursday's close, more than 50 times its adjusted earnings pace. Shares have ranged from $18.97 to $142.35 over the past year, showing how quickly the market reprices the stock in both directions.
Sources: The Motley Fool, Crypto Briefing
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