Intel shares have climbed 37.52% over the past month to $123.86, pushing past Wall Street's average price target. Strong Q2 earnings and an agentic-AI-driven CPU shortage are fueling the rally, but Intel Foundry is still losing billions and the stock's valuation has run ahead of its fundamentals.
Intel trades at $123.86, 37.52% higher than a month ago and above its average Wall Street price target. That mean target sits at $116.37, implying roughly 6% downside from current levels.
Coverage spans 48 analysts, split 1 Strong Buy, 13 Buy, 32 Hold, 1 Sell and 1 Strong Sell. The Hold-heavy distribution captures the same tension as the price: the turnaround story looks real, but the stock has already priced in much of it.
Q2 earnings mark the strongest growth in years
Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $16.13 billion, up 25.42% year over year, described as Intel's strongest revenue growth in more than 15 years. Data Center and AI revenue jumped 59%, while non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 nearly doubled the $0.2175 consensus.
Operating cash flow hit $7 billion for the quarter. Forward 2027 EPS estimates have climbed from $1.5236 ninety days ago to $2.0621, with 30 upward revisions against zero downward revisions in the trailing 30 days.
Agentic AI is straining Intel's CPU supply
Behind the earnings sits a demand story. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said Intel can currently fulfill only about 50% of customer orders for its CPUs, as agentic AI inference workloads lean more heavily on CPUs than the GPU-centric buildout of prior years.
Meta's Muse AI agent app, which topped the free app charts on US iPhones, has become a flashpoint for that demand. NVIDIA has also selected Xeon 6 for its DGX Rubin NVL8 systems, reinforcing Intel's data-center push alongside its existing $5 billion equity stake from NVIDIA.
Foundry losses and rich valuation temper the optimism
Intel Foundry lost $2.1 billion in Q2 on just $293 million of external revenue, underscoring how far the contract-manufacturing business remains from profitability. According to 24/7 Wall St., CFO David Zinsner warned that supply "will not catch up" in the fourth quarter, with management expecting PC consumption down low double digits for all of 2026.
Valuation reflects that optimism already: Intel carries a forward P/E of 57 and an EV/EBITDA of 162, against trailing EPS of -$2.09. The stock is up 235.66% year to date, versus the S&P 500's 13.42% gain over the same stretch.
Bulls need a named 14A external customer and shrinking foundry losses to justify the price here; bears need only a Q3 miss versus the $16.3 billion midpoint to break the rally's momentum.
Sources: 24/7 Wall St., Crypto Briefing
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