Jefferies believes underlying demand for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is weakening further. The firm points to shrinking lead times, falling resale prices and reported order cuts. Sell-through in China looks strong, but Jefferies attributes it to discounted iPhone 17 inventory.
Jefferies believes underlying demand for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is weakening further. The firm cites shrinking lead times, falling resale prices and reported order cuts.
Analyst Edison Lee said in a Monday note that lead times in China have fallen to zero for the two models, compared with six and 25 days for last year's models. Lead times in Japan are also said to be significantly shorter year over year, though U.S. lead times for the Pro Max are up.
Lee wrote: "Our tracking continues to indicate weak demand for 18P/PM."
Chinese platform PDD began discounting the Pro and Pro Max by 6% and 9%, respectively, on Oct. 16. Resale prices for all Pro variants went to discounts from Sept. 29, while last year's model traded at premiums of 1% to 6%.
Jefferies says industry checks suggest Apple has cut orders on some iPhone components, including 2nm chips, by 10% to 15%. Some supply chain players indicated that the net assembly order cut so far is only 2 million units. The analyst added that further order cuts are possible if weak demand continues.
Lee also addressed the strong sell-through in China. He noted that iPhone volumes rose more than 40% year over year in the two weeks after shipments began, then slowed to about 8% in early October. Jefferies attributes that strength to discounted channel sales of iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max inventory.
Meanwhile, the foldable Duo's lead time expanded beyond 90 days after its Oct. 16 pre-order launch. Jefferies estimates this implies a maximum of 6 million to 7 million shipments in 2026, in line with market expectations.
Source: Investing.com
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