J.P. Morgan raised its price target and earnings estimates for Eli Lilly, citing the drugmaker's incretin portfolio and pipeline. The bank kept an Overweight rating and now expects combined Zepbound, Mounjaro and Foundayo sales to top $100 billion by 2030, though it flagged pricing pressure and rollout risks.
J.P. Morgan raised its 2027 revenue estimate for Eli Lilly by 0.7% to $105.67 billion and lifted its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast by 1.1% to $50.99. The bank maintained an Overweight rating and a December 2026 price target of $1,400, against a share price of $1,160 on Sept. 1.
Incretin sales seen topping $100 billion
The brokerage expects Lilly's total revenue to climb from about $88 billion in 2026 to more than $105 billion in 2027 and $135 billion in 2030. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding in-process research and development, could rise from about $40 in 2026 to nearly $70 by 2030, the bank said.
The biggest driver, J.P. Morgan said, is Lilly's incretin portfolio — Zepbound, Mounjaro and the oral GLP-1 drug Foundayo. The bank forecasts combined incretin sales of more than $62 billion in 2026, $78 billion in 2027 and over $100 billion in 2030, implying roughly 20% annualized growth through the end of the decade. Greater Medicare penetration and direct-to-consumer access should support the U.S. obesity market, while international markets could add another growth avenue. Zepbound in particular is expected to capture a large share of new prescriptions as obesity treatment expands.
Pipeline candidates add longer-term upside
J.P. Morgan also sees significant longer-term potential in pipeline candidates retatrutide and eloralintide. Retatrutide, potentially arriving in late 2027, is expected to serve a broad range of obese patients. Eloralintide could find use in first-line treatment, in patients who respond poorly to GLP-1 drugs, and in weight-maintenance therapy.
Still, investors remain concerned about pricing pressure on GLP-1 drugs and the pace of Foundayo's U.S. rollout, the bank said. It argued Lilly's next-generation medicines could hold a competitive edge by raising the efficacy and tolerability bar, while broader employer coverage could improve access as prices decline.
The brokerage's model projects revenue growth of 35% in 2026 and 20.1% in 2027, with adjusted EPS rising 50.7% and 39.7% in those years, respectively. EBITDA margins are expected to expand from 48.9% in 2026 to 54.7% in 2027 as the company benefits from scale.
J.P. Morgan flagged key risks to its bullish view: weaker-than-expected diabetes and obesity growth, stronger competition, tougher U.S. pricing regulation including pressure from the Inflation Reduction Act, and potential failures in Lilly's drug pipeline.
Source: Investing.com
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