Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in trading volume on its 2026 U.S. midterm markets, nearly twice its 2024 cycle total. The company said market favorites won 479 of 487 resolved races, though the two cycles are not a like-for-like comparison.
Kalshi reported more than $2.5 billion in trading volume on its 2026 U.S. midterm election markets, nearly twice the $1.3 billion recorded during the 2024 election cycle. Using the company's rounded figures, that is growth of more than 92%.
The comparison spans two different contests. The 2024 cycle included a presidential election, while this year's voting centered on congressional, state and local races.
Kalshi reports a 98% hit rate across resolved races
Kalshi said market favorites won 479 of 487 races resolved by 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 4. The count covered House, Senate and gubernatorial contests alongside races for attorney general, lieutenant governor and secretary of state.
Several contests, including the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races, were still unresolved when the recap was published. The hit rate therefore covered only the results available that morning.
Kalshi said its House control market reached a 99% probability of a Democratic majority at 8:10 p.m. ET on election night. Senate control crossed the same threshold at 9 p.m. ET.
Forecast accuracy rose before polls closed
A separate Kalshi Research analysis tracked forecasts from three months before voting through poll closure. Researchers reported that directional accuracy rose from 93.8% to 98.2%, a gain of 4.4 percentage points.
Brier scores, which measure the gap between forecast probabilities and actual outcomes, fell from 0.040 to 0.016. Lower scores indicate better performance.
Pre-election open interest and underdog winners
Before the election, Dune research cited by crypto.news put combined midterm open interest on Kalshi and Polymarket at $250 million as of Oct. 18. Kalshi accounted for $210 million and Polymarket for $40 million.
Reuters reported that prediction markets anticipated Democratic control of Congress but missed the strength of some candidates. Analytics firm BETINT counted 14 Democratic winners who had been market underdogs a week earlier.
Source: crypto.news
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