Gartner now projects memory chips will generate $837.3 billion in 2026, or 54% of the $1.56 trillion global semiconductor market — nearly double memory's 27% share a year earlier. Nvidia's rising supply commitments and long-term deals from Micron, SK hynix and Samsung show how AI demand has pulled memory out of its traditional commodity role, though the industry's boom-bust pricing cycle hasn't disappeared.
Memory chips are on pace to account for 54% of the $1.56 trillion global semiconductor market in 2026, according to Gartner — up from just 27% in 2025. Gartner's April forecast had put memory at roughly 48% of a $1.32 trillion market, with revenue rising from $216.3 billion in 2025 to $633.3 billion in 2026.
AI reshapes memory demand
The clearest evidence is coming from procurement rather than forecasts. Nvidia increased its supply and capacity commitments from $119 billion to $279 billion in a single quarter, and the company says the increase is primarily related to memory. Of that, $92 billion is due in the remainder of fiscal 2027, $87 billion in fiscal 2028 and $88 billion in fiscal 2029.
Three companies dominate the memory market: Micron Technology, SK hynix and Samsung Electronics. SK hynix has secured long-term agreements with about 10 customers. It currently holds 56.4% of the HBM market. Micron says 16 strategic customer agreements cover roughly 20% of its DRAM volume and a third of its NAND volume over their contract periods.
Gartner also expects DRAM revenue to climb 246.6% year-over-year in 2026, while NAND flash jumps 371.9%. It projects AI data centers will account for 36.5% of total semiconductor revenue by 2026, eventually surpassing 53% by 2030.
The cycle hasn't disappeared
Memory's history warns against assuming this growth is permanent. The category previously reached roughly 34% of semiconductor revenue in 2018 before DRAM average selling prices fell 47.4% the following year, dragging memory revenue down 31.5% and its share back to 26.7%. Gartner attributed that collapse to oversupply, not falling demand.
New capacity is already on the way. SK hynix plans a $4 billion Indiana facility for next-generation HBM packaging and has approved about $38.3 billion of investment through 2031. SK hynix and Sandisk have also introduced a High Bandwidth Flash standard designed to ease AI memory bottlenecks, a potential technological substitute for scarce HBM.
Nvidia's $279 billion procurement commitment cuts both ways: it gives memory makers unusual demand visibility, but it also means any slowdown in Nvidia's AI accelerator demand would ripple through the sector at a larger scale than before.
Sources: 24/7 Wall St., Crypto Briefing
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