Micron posted record fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.2 billion and forecast another double-digit sequential gain, and this time the stock rose instead of following its usual post-earnings dip. The last five times shares fell the day after a Micron report, they were higher three months later, and the rise came despite a much bigger spending plan.
Record quarter, bigger forecast
Micron's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, the 14-week period ended Sept. 3, 2026, brought revenue of $54.2 billion, up 379% from the same quarter last year. Non-GAAP earnings per share rose about 11-fold to $33.42. Management, pointing to demand fueled by artificial intelligence, forecast about $61.5 billion of revenue for the current quarter, a 13% sequential gain. Shares rose 3% the first session after the report.
A pattern breaks
That gain breaks a pattern. The stock had slid the day after five of Micron's eight previous reports, and all five times it was higher roughly three months (63 trading days) later. A 16% drop after the December 2024 report turned into an 8% gain, an 8% drop after March 2025 became a 29% gain, a 1% dip after June 2025 turned into a 25% gain, and a 3% loss after September 2025 became a 71% gain. The pattern isn't a rule, though: shares fell 7% after the June 2024 report and were 17% lower three months later, never climbing back to that report-day close. Gains after a report have fared worse still — a 15% pop after the September 2024 report turned into an 18% loss, and a 16% spike after the June 2026 report turned into an 11% loss.
Spending plan grows despite the rally
The rise came even as Micron laid out sharply higher spending. The company expects roughly $25 billion of capital expenditure over its next two quarters, implying more than $50 billion for the full fiscal year, nearly double the $27.4 billion it spent in fiscal 2026, mostly for construction to speed up cleanroom space. Micron's president and chief operating officer, Manish Bhatia, said on Wednesday's call that the company will "build capacity to the demand trends that we see." Across the five fiscal years before 2026, Micron's DRAM average selling prices swung from annual gains in the low-40% range to annual drops in the high-40% range, a swing that can make memory investors nervous about future supply. The source's analysis notes the stock trades at around six times its expected fiscal 2027 earnings, which it says already looks priced for those profits to eventually fall.
Source: Motley Fool
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
