Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury expects Alphabet to reach a $5 trillion market cap before Apple, even though Apple stands far closer to that threshold today. His case rests on valuation: Alphabet trades roughly in line with the S&P 500’s trailing multiple, while Apple approaches five-year highs.
Apple sits just over $200 billion away from the $5 trillion market-cap club that Nvidia has already joined, while Alphabet trails by about $1 trillion following its sell-off. Even so, Motley Fool analyst Keithen Drury expects Alphabet to close that market capitalization gap first.
Alphabet’s profits pull away from Apple’s
Apple still outperforms Alphabet on revenue, but Drury argues that matters less for companies this size than what they do with it. Alphabet carried $160 billion in net income as of Q1 2026, and he sees it starting to put distance between itself and Apple on profits.
The two businesses are built differently. Apple stakes itself on hardware while generating a fair bit of revenue from services, whereas Alphabet is more software focused and runs a cloud computing business that buys hardware and rents it back to clients.
Apple’s multiple approaches five-year highs
Drury’s case turns entirely on valuation. Because the market values Apple in a higher regard, its stock is worth far more despite the profit comparison running the other way.
The S&P 500 trades for 25.5 times trailing earnings, which leaves Alphabet nearly in line with the broader market on that measure. Apple, by Drury’s reading, is approaching five-year highs on trailing earnings; as he puts it, “Apple commands a massive premium”. Alphabet, meanwhile, sits at the higher end of its range but still fairly close to average.
Switching to forward earnings does not improve the relationship. Apple’s earnings aren’t expected to grow that much throughout the year, Drury writes, so the stock would still look expensive at year-end even if the company hits all analyst projections.
What Drury’s call depends on
His conclusion is conditional. Had Alphabet traded at the same valuation as Apple, it would already be part of the $5 trillion club, and he expects it to get there first even if that takes some time.
Drury goes further on the longer horizon: even if Apple reaches $5 trillion first, he thinks Alphabet will easily get to $6 trillion first.
Source: Motley Fool
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