The Nasdaq 100 climbed to a record close as a technology-led rally pushed US stocks near all-time highs, while USD/JPY pressed against a multi-month downtrend line and Brent crude held below a key resistance zone. Treasury yields rose further, with the 10-year note approaching levels last seen in 2002.
A tech-led rally lifted the Nasdaq 100 to a record close and left the S&P 500 within 0.5% of its own all-time high. Strong corporate earnings, resilient consumer spending and accelerating AI investment have outweighed last month's Federal Reserve rate hike and renewed inflation concerns.
Nasdaq 100 eyes a Fibonacci extension target
The Nasdaq 100 has risen to 31,117 on strong AI demand. A move above this level could open the way to the 100% Fibonacci extension of the April-to-October 2025 advance, projected at 32,481.
Were the index to retreat instead, the early June and 22 September highs at 30,770-to-30,762 may offer support, ahead of the 22-to-25 September highs at 30,667-to-30,643. The short-term outlook stays bullish while the index holds above the 28 September low at 30,081, and the medium-term outlook stays bullish above the 16 September low at 28,753.
USD/JPY tests a downtrend line near ¥158
USD/JPY's recovery from its ¥152.88 early September low is grappling with the July-to-October downtrend line at ¥158.08, the 200-day moving average at ¥158.47 and the 1 October high at ¥158.45. A break above would put the late September high of ¥159.04 in view, followed by the mid-August-to-early-September highs at ¥159.78-to-¥160.39.
A slip through the early October low at ¥156.95 would instead point back toward last week's low at ¥156.38. The short-term outlook is bullish above ¥156.38, while the medium-term outlook is neutral with a bullish undertone above ¥152.88.
Brent crude holds below resistance
Brent crude is coming off its $107.22 24 September high, a level that has capped the price since last week. A daily close above it could put the September peak of $111.45 back in play.
As long as $107.22 caps the upside, though, a slip toward the 22-to-30 September lows at $98.86-to-$98.05 is expected, an area reinforced by the July-to-October uptrend line at $99.26. The short-term outlook is neutral with a slight bearish bias while Brent trades below $107.22 and above $98.05.
Elsewhere, the 10-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 5.32%, close to levels last seen in 2002, while the two-year yield added two basis points to 4.83%. The US dollar index held Monday's gains at its highest level since June, with the euro near a 17-month low.
Source: IG – News and trade ideas
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