New Street Research estimates that as much as 10% of Nvidia's revenue may come directly or indirectly from China. The analysis arrives as Wall Street weighs a possible crackdown tied to CEO Jensen Huang's involvement with a suspected Chinese spy.
As much as 10% of its revenues may come directly or indirectly from China, according to a Monday analysis from New Street Research.
What the estimate covers
That share amounts to between $37 and $47 billion of Nvidia's total expected fiscal year 2027 revenue of $411 billion, based on consensus estimates New Street cites.
New Street classifies 6% as legal sales into China and Hong Kong, and 4% as booked officially outside of China. Of that 4%, the firm estimates half gets physically diverted into China, while the other half is used by Chinese-controlled offshore capacity.
Nvidia stock down about 5% as the Justice Department takes over a probe
Nvidia stock was down about 5% in regular trading on Monday.
The New York Times reported Monday that the Commerce Department was already investigating the company where the suspected Chinese spy was a boss. The investigation then moved to the Justice Department, after Nvidia's general counsel contacted Commerce, the Times reported.
Meanwhile, Nvidia's board launched an independent investigation on November 8, 2026, according to Crypto Briefing. Crypto Briefing also reports that the data center firm Megaspeed, where the suspected spy worked, has bought nearly $5 billion in Nvidia AI chips.
Export controls and Nvidia's response
The U.S. maintains export controls on some of Nvidia's most high-tech chips, though Chinese firms have reportedly been able to access Nvidia-powered computing capacity through other countries.
At its 2026 annual shareholders meeting, Nvidia told investors it is committed to compliance with all U.S. laws and works with the AI ecosystem and the U.S. government.
Sources: CNBC, Crypto Briefing
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