Options traders are pricing in Nvidia's smallest post-earnings move since 2021 ahead of Wednesday's report, even as the chipmaker heads into the print on a seven-session losing streak. The calmer pricing comes as consensus estimates point to roughly $92 billion in quarterly revenue, while crypto-native traders on Phantom remain overwhelmingly positioned for a rally.
A calmer options market
The options market has priced in an implied move of 5.4% for Nvidia's earnings, the lowest level heading into a report since August 2021, according to data from ORATS. That marks a step down from the 7.4% average move Nvidia has posted over its past 12 quarters, and below the 6.5% implied move priced ahead of its previous report.
Option buyers overpaid for Nvidia's past eight reports as the stock moved less than the options market implied, according to ORATS founder Matt Amberson, and pricing has since adjusted to reflect that. Raymond James chief investment officer Larry Adam said the results and guidance will be critical for reading the broader AI trade this week.
Nvidia's longest losing streak of the bull market
Nvidia enters Wednesday's report after a seven-day losing streak through Monday's close, the longest since the current bull market began in October 2022. Bespoke Investment Group analysts wrote that "the stock now trades like anything but a semiconductor stock," pointing to repeated stretches where the sector moved one way while Nvidia moved the other.
The PHLX Semiconductor Index has climbed 61% year-to-date. Nvidia's own stock, the index's most heavily weighted component, has languished below its late-June record for two months. Nvidia has struggled separately as concerns about circular financing in the AI space have grown, while newly public chipmakers like Cerebras Systems build competing AI chips to challenge its market share.
Crypto-native traders are betting the other way
Away from the regulated options market, 88.7% of traders holding NVDA perpetual futures on Phantom are long heading into earnings, barely down from 89.3% in late June. The platform, built on Hyperliquid's infrastructure, lets users trade Nvidia price exposure around the clock with up to 10x leverage, a feature it has offered since November 2025.
What Wednesday's numbers need to show
Consensus estimates point to roughly $92 billion in quarterly revenue, above Nvidia's own prior guidance of $91 billion, with adjusted earnings per share expected near $2.09. Data-center revenue and forward guidance on hyperscaler capital spending will likely draw the most scrutiny from investors watching for signs of a slowdown in AI infrastructure demand.
Sources: MarketWatch, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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