Broadcom projects faster AI semiconductor revenue growth than Nvidia over the next two years, but Nvidia's data center business starts from a much larger base. Nvidia guided for roughly 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, while Broadcom's own forecasts point to two straight years of doubling. The gap comes down to scale versus speed, and to how concentrated each company's customer base is.
Broadcom's growth rate outpaces Nvidia's guidance
Broadcom expects its AI semiconductor revenue to reach about $115 billion in fiscal 2027 and $230 billion in fiscal 2028, according to its own projections cited in a Reuters report. That would mean the business doubles in fiscal 2027, then doubles again in fiscal 2028. Nvidia, by contrast, told investors it expects total revenue to grow roughly 70% in fiscal 2028, starting from a base of nearly $100 billion per quarter. On percentage terms alone, Broadcom's trajectory is steeper.
Nvidia's base dwarfs Broadcom's
Nvidia reported total revenue of $96.2 billion for the quarter ended July 26, 2026, up 18% from the prior quarter and 106% from a year ago. About $89 billion of that came from its data center segment, split between $49 billion in hyperscale revenue, up 13% sequentially, and $40 billion from what the company calls "ACIE" customers, up 25% sequentially. Nvidia guided next-quarter revenue to about $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, and management said the fiscal 2028 growth figure reflects what it can ship rather than what customers want to buy — a sign that demand may be outpacing supply.
Broadcom's quarter, ended Aug. 2, brought in $29.6 billion in revenue, up 86% year over year. AI semiconductor sales made up $16.7 billion of that, more than half of total revenue, and surged 221% year over year and 54% from the prior quarter. Management also guided for about $58 billion in AI semiconductor revenue for fiscal 2026, up 186% from the prior year.
A narrower customer base carries more risk
Nvidia sells chips and AI systems to cloud providers, governments, start-ups, and enterprise customers, giving it a broader and more diversified revenue base even as it works to keep up with demand. Broadcom's AI business, however, relies on a smaller number of massive customers building custom chips at scale, according to Reuters reporting — a model that can produce outsized profits but also carries greater risk if a major buyer pulls back.
Broadcom's forecast is the more aggressive one on paper. But Nvidia's slower, broader expansion draws on a far larger and more diversified customer base, which could prove more durable if any single large buyer changes course.
Source: The Motley Fool
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