Nvidia shares rose 2.9% to $200.75 as fresh results keep the chipmaker on pace to hit the $1 trillion cumulative chip-sales target CEO Jensen Huang laid out in March. Data center revenue still drives nearly all of that growth, but rising competition from Nvidia's own cloud customers threatens to slow it.
Nvidia shares rose 2.9% to $200.75, keeping the chipmaker on track for a forecast Huang made at the company's GTC conference in March. According to Fool: "I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion." Huang was describing cumulative Blackwell and Rubin chip sales from 2025 through 2027.
Data center revenue keeps pace
Over the past year, data center revenue made up roughly 90% of Nvidia's total sales, and Blackwell chips have driven most of that growth. In the fiscal first quarter of 2027, which ends in January, data center revenue grew 92% year over year to $75 billion.
In fiscal 2026, which mostly aligns with calendar 2025, Nvidia generated $216 billion in total revenue, with nearly $194 billion from data centers. Wall Street now forecasts $394 billion in total revenue this year and $561 billion next year — about $1.17 trillion cumulatively since last year. If data center sales hold near 90% of that total, cumulative data center revenue since last year would clear $1 trillion by the end of next year.
Management stands by the target
Nvidia's leadership has stuck with that forecast. On the fiscal first-quarter earnings call, CFO Colette Kress said the company is working on its supply chain to meet demand, giving it confidence in the $1 trillion Blackwell and Rubin revenue it foresees from 2025 through calendar 2027. Her mention of supply chain work, however, points to the risks that could still get in the way.
Competition and supply could slow shipments
Execution is the first risk: demand for Nvidia's hardware looks enormous, but data center construction and component shortages could limit how much the company can ship. Competition from its own customers is the second — Amazon and Alphabet's Google are designing custom AI chips for their cloud platforms, and top cloud companies have previously accounted for about half of Nvidia's data center revenue.
That is why Nvidia has been striking deals with neocloud and sovereign customers, including IREN and Japanese manufacturers, to cut its reliance on big tech buyers now building their own chips. The $1 trillion cumulative target remains achievable, but a slowdown in data center demand or continued supply constraints could still weigh on both growth and the stock.
Source: Fool
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