Nvidia has guided for 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028, a pace management says its supply chain can barely support given how strong demand already is. The forecast implies roughly $100 billion more revenue than Wall Street had modeled — even as the company's China data-center business has shrunk to almost nothing.
Nvidia's fiscal 2028 outlook calls for 70% revenue growth year over year, a figure Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress attributed to supply constraints rather than a ceiling on demand. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said actual demand for the company's processors is rising even faster than that pace.
Wall Street had modeled about 44% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, implying fiscal 2028 sales of roughly $574 billion against a $397 billion fiscal 2027 consensus estimate. Applying Nvidia's 70% guidance to the same revenue base instead points to about $675 billion — a gap of roughly $100 billion versus Wall Street's estimate.
China no longer factors into the outlook
Hopper-architecture chips shipped to China made up less than 1% of Nvidia's data-center revenue in the quarter, and those shipments diluted the company's gross margin. According to Kress: "there is no China data center compute revenue in our forward outlook" because of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Crypto Briefing reported that China revenue, including Hong Kong, totaled $7.88 billion in the quarter — roughly 8% of total revenue. Huang has said Nvidia's market share in China for advanced AI chips fell from approximately 95% to essentially zero.
Non-hyperscale buyers fill the gap
Kress said customers outside the largest cloud providers — AI labs, neoclouds, enterprises and sovereign buyers — now make up roughly half of Nvidia's data-center business, a cohort management says is becoming just as important as the hyperscalers.
Valuation hasn't caught up
Nvidia stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 23, with a price/earnings-to-growth ratio around 0.6 — a PEG below 1 typically signals a stock is undervalued.
The company still faces competition from Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom's custom silicon designs, but its latest results show growth no longer depends on regaining ground in China.
Sources: The Motley Fool, Crypto Briefing
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