Partners Group strategist Anastasia Amoroso now targets the S&P 500 at roughly 8,500 on 2027 earnings, with 8,200 as her more likely year-end mark. A newly signed Iran memorandum of understanding removed the geopolitical risks she had modeled, and that is what changed her mind.
Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at Partners Group, now sees the S&P 500 reaching about 8,500 on 2027 earnings, with 8,200 as the more likely landing spot by the end of 2027. The trigger was not a new earnings model but a shift in the risk picture.
What changed her mind
A newly signed Iran memorandum of understanding removed the geopolitical overhang Amoroso had been carrying as a tail risk. Partners Group had modeled that overhang as 30 to 50 basis points of drag on GDP growth and 50 to 100 basis points of inflation upside. With the deal signed, she has shelved both scenarios.
That matters because the earnings backdrop was already strong. Amoroso points to Q2 earnings growing 25% year over year against expectations of 15%, with Q3 tracking another 20% and S&P profit margins at 14% or higher.
The case for higher earnings
Corporate profits support the view. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Q1 2026 corporate profits of $4.4 trillion, up 12.8% year over year. Much of that strength sits in the information sector, where profit reached $352.5 billion, up from $270.8 billion in Q2 2025.
Spending trends reinforce the earnings story. Vanguard projects that AI scalers will spend $2.1 trillion in cumulative capital expenditure from Q1 2025 through Q4 2027. Defense budgets add another leg: the U.S. FY 2027 request runs to $1.5 trillion, roughly a 42% increase, after NATO members agreed to a 5% of GDP spending standard.
Where the target could break
The bullish math rests on delivery. Amoroso calculates that 20%-plus earnings growth through 2027 justifies mid-20s multiples on next year’s earnings, so any earnings miss would undercut the case. Inflation is another watch point. Core PCE printed its highest 12-month reading of 130.08 in May.
BlackRock offers a counterweight. It entered 2026 with reduced U.S. equity exposure, citing concern that historically heavy capital spending can turn into overinvestment. That leaves Amoroso’s 8,500 reading as a confident call rather than a consensus one.
Source: Yahoo Finance
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