Polymarket traders are pricing a 61% chance that Hamas commits to disarming by December 31, 2026, after President Trump announced a Gaza peace agreement on July 30. The contract has drawn nearly $3 million in volume, and Israel has yet to issue a formal response to the deal.
A Polymarket contract asking whether Hamas will commit to disarming by December 31, 2026 is trading at a 61% probability. The market has pulled in over $2.98 million in total volume since it launched on June 30 on the Polygon blockchain, keeping every trade transparent and verifiable.
The deal behind the odds
The odds moved after President Trump announced on July 30 that a US-led Board of Peace had reached an agreement with Hamas and other armed factions in Gaza, calling it a "historic milestone." The agreement lays out a 15-point roadmap covering weapons decommissioning, the transfer of governing authority to a technocratic National Committee for Administration, and international oversight mechanisms to verify compliance. Details are supposed to be finalized within 14 days of the announcement.
Hamas has expressed conditional acceptance, tying its willingness to disarm to Israeli withdrawals and other stipulations, some of which trace back to ceasefire terms established as early as October 2025. Israel, however, has issued no formal statement in response.
What the contract is actually measuring
The December 31, 2026 outcome alone has accumulated more than $892,000 in volume. Resolution hinges on an official or widely acknowledged Hamas announcement confirming a commitment to disarm, fully or partially, by year-end — it does not require disarmament to actually happen. Crypto-native outlets have largely ignored the market over the past 30 days, suggesting the activity is being driven by geopolitical interest rather than crypto-native speculation.
What could still move the price
If the roadmap's details are finalized on schedule within 14 days, the probability could spike. Israel's continued silence is a key variable: a formal Israeli rejection could crater the price, while an endorsement would likely push it well above 70%. Hamas's acceptance remains tied to the October 2025 ceasefire terms, and if those terms become contested, the framework could unravel.
Hamas could still end up committing to disarm in January 2027, which would sink the December 31 bet even if the broader peace process holds.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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