Polymarket has opened an internal investigation into well-timed trades placed shortly before two New York Times/Siena College polls were made public. Vanderbilt University researchers flagged a trader who made more than $257,000 across two Senate races. The funds came through an anonymous wallet, and researchers could not say who controls them.
Polymarket says it identified a series of well-timed trades placed shortly before two New York Times/Siena College polls were published. The company has started its own review. Researchers at Vanderbilt University flagged the trades, and the New York Times reported their findings.
A $2 million deposit and two well-timed bets
The sequence of events caught the researchers' attention. On October 30, around 5:30 p.m. ET, more than $2 million landed in an anonymous crypto wallet, which then started placing sizable bets on Polymarket.
According to the Vanderbilt research, roughly $191,000 went toward Nebraska Republican Senator Pete Ricketts holding his Senate seat. Before the poll appeared, the market gave Ricketts approximately a 67% chance of winning. After a poll showed him ahead by six points, those odds climbed to about 79%, and the position made more than $77,000.
The same trader also put more than $622,000 behind the Democratic nominee in the Michigan Senate race. After a subsequent NYT/Siena poll was released, that position produced profits exceeding $180,000. In total, the account cleared more than $257,000 across the two races.
Researchers stop short of accusations
Brett Goldstein, the Vanderbilt researcher involved in the work, did not accuse anyone outright. According to Goldstein: "Requires further investigation." He said the activity was hard to dismiss as simple coincidence.
Polymarket confirmed it had detected the trades and begun its review, but it did not announce conclusions or penalties. The research also covered Kalshi, another prediction market named in the findings, and Kalshi declined to comment.
Why polls draw scrutiny
Major media polls are scheduled events, and a handful of people, including pollsters, editors and production staff, see results before publication. The anonymous wallet leaves the trades visible on-chain while hiding the identity behind them. Researchers could trace the $2 million deposit and the timing of the bets, but they could not say who controlled the money.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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