Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold has raised his Nvidia price target to $515, the highest on Wall Street, after the chipmaker's latest earnings beat. The call implies 126% upside and rests on the view that supply, not demand, is now Nvidia's main constraint.
Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold bumped his Nvidia price target to $515 from $352, a 46% increase, while reiterating a Strong Buy rating. The move followed Nvidia's second-quarter fiscal 2027 earnings report, which topped Wall Street's expectations as sales more than doubled.
Investors had already pushed the stock higher before Leopold's call landed. Nvidia shares jumped 8.7% to $227.9 the session after earnings, adding $442 billion in market value and finishing just below their record close.
Nvidia's $515 target towers over the rest of Wall Street
Using Nvidia's latest closing price, Leopold's target implies 126% upside and values the company at $12.4 trillion, more than double its current $5.49 trillion market capitalization. Wall Street's consensus target sits at $322.95, with forecasts ranging from $180 to $515, so Leopold's number runs over 50% above consensus.
JPMorgan, Citi, Morgan Stanley, and UBS all raised their targets after the report, but none came close to Raymond James. Even Evercore ISI's $465 forecast, the second-highest on the Street, sits 10.8% below Leopold's call.
Why Leopold sees $1 trillion in Nvidia revenue
Leopold's argument centers on supply rather than demand. Nvidia's fiscal Q2 sales skyrocketed 106% to $96.2 billion, exceeding his own $92.3 billion estimate, while data-center revenue leapt 117% to $89 billion. Nvidia then guided for $108 billion in October-quarter sales, above the Street's $104.86 billion expectation, and projected 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028 versus analysts' prior estimate of 44% to 45%.
CEO Jensen Huang pointed to the same bottleneck: "Our entire supply chain is challenged." Leopold ties that constraint to deferred sales rather than softening interest, and believes it could eventually push annual sales toward $1 trillion by January 2029, over 33% above FactSet's consensus of just under $750 billion.
The $515 target demands near-perfect execution
Leopold applies a 22-times multiple to his calendar 2028 earnings estimate, implying $23.41 per share. However, small shifts in either assumption move the outcome sharply: if 2028 earnings fall 20% short and investors apply an 18-times multiple instead, the resulting value drops to around $337, much closer to Wall Street's consensus.
Nvidia has also made $279 billion in supply and capacity commitments to secure scarce components, and rising memory costs are expected to push gross margin from 75% toward 71% to 72% before a potential recovery next year. One customer accounts for 16% of quarterly sales, competition from AMD and hyperscalers' custom chips is growing, and the October-quarter outlook includes no data-center sales in China.
Source: TheStreet
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