Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have knocked out over a million barrels per day of Russian refining capacity, pushing crude production down for a sixth straight month. The damage has forced Russia to reroute crude to export terminals, but that export bump looks set to reverse sharply in June even as fuel shortages spread at home.
Russia's oil production has fallen for six consecutive months, with output dropping to 9.009 million barrels per day by May. A sustained campaign of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes against refineries, ports, and storage facilities is behind the decline, cutting secondary oil processing capacity by an estimated 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day year-over-year by May. The damage forced Russia to cut crude production by roughly 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day as of April.
Refinery damage pushes crude toward export terminals
When refineries go offline, the crude that would normally flow into them has to go somewhere else. In Russia's case, it went to export terminals instead. Western-port oil loadings surged to 2.5 million barrels per day in May, a 15% jump from the prior month and the highest level in eight months.
That export bump looks temporary, however. Projections point to shipments dropping to roughly 1.7 million barrels per day in June, a reversal that would erase most of May's gain. Russia also appears to be redirecting some crude back toward domestic refining to address a growing fuel crisis at home.
Fires, rationing, and billions in losses
Ukrainian officials estimated that drone attacks in March alone caused approximately $2.3 billion in revenue losses for Russia. Refinery fires and blackouts have disrupted fuel distribution across multiple regions, and by May some areas had resorted to purchase caps and fuel rationing.
The geographic scope of the strikes has expanded too, with attacks reaching as far as Tatarstan, roughly 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The intensification of strikes from March to May coincided with rising global oil prices.
A campaign outpacing repairs
Strikes on Russian refineries began in earnest in 2024, but the current wave appears to be outpacing Russia's ability to repair the damage. Attacks are hitting the same facilities repeatedly and expanding to new targets before older ones are fully restored.
A drop from 2.5 million to 1.7 million barrels per day in western-port loadings within a single month would mark a 32% decline, erasing the temporary export bump that had masked the true depth of Russia's production crisis.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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