Rystad Energy has cut its 2026 Russian crude output forecast to 8.95 million barrels per day, with 2027 output sliding to 8.6 million bpd. Drone strikes are pushing refinery throughput nearly 30% below its seasonal average, and spare production capacity has shrunk to around 620,000 bpd, leaving Russia's oil industry little room to absorb further shocks.
Rystad Energy has cut its 2026 forecast for Russian crude output to 8.95 million barrels per day, with production sliding further to around 8.6 million bpd in 2027. The revision marks a 90,000 bpd downgrade from the consultancy's prior outlook, driven by renewed disruption at western Russian export terminals and rising risk to seaborne exports.
Refineries running far below normal
Following a year of tighter sanctions and Ukrainian strikes on refineries, ports and tankers, Russia's crude output has fallen further in the second half of 2026. Rystad expects refinery throughput to average around 4 million bpd between July and December, almost 30% below the 2016-2023 seasonal average of roughly 5.7 million bpd.
According to Rystad Energy: "Refinery runs in June and July were among the lowest recorded". As a result, Russia is likely to process around 1.4 million bpd less crude in the second half of the year than historical seasonal patterns would suggest. Every barrel not processed by a refinery must either be exported, placed into storage or removed from production, and July showed the export system cannot consistently absorb the extra volumes.
Spare capacity keeps shrinking
Onshore crude inventories are already at levels where sustained production cuts become increasingly difficult to avoid, so Russia has little scope left to absorb further supply disruption. Even if operational constraints ease, a meaningful recovery in output appears unlikely.
Rystad estimates Russia's spare production capacity at around 620,000 bpd in 2026, rising modestly to 700,000 bpd in 2027. Much of that capacity sits in aging, high-water-cut wells shut in under the current round of production cuts. The longer these wells stay offline, the less likely they are to return at previous rates, since extended shut-ins raise the risk of costly interventions and, in some cases, permanent abandonment.
A 2027 surplus would cut into Russia's leverage
The consultancy expects the global oil market to move into surplus in 2027 if the Middle East conflict eases and disrupted supply flows normalize. That scenario would pressure benchmark prices just as Russian producers already contend with wider discounts and higher logistics costs. Buyers in China, India, Türkiye, Hungary and Slovakia would also gain greater access to non-sanctioned crude oil, reducing their willingness to accept the risks tied to Russian barrels without demanding steeper discounts.
Source: Oilprice.com
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