Shein has won Beijing's approval for a Hong Kong listing, but analysts say the ultra-fast-fashion retailer may have already missed its best window to go public. A filing tied to the offering shows decelerating revenue growth and a first-quarter loss, while the company's valuation is under pressure to settle well below its 2022 peak.
Shein has won approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for a Hong Kong listing, clearing the way for an IPO after its earlier attempts to go public in New York and London both collapsed. But investors are questioning whether Beijing's blessing can support the more-than-$40-billion stock valuation the company once commanded, given a growth engine that has stalled.
A Sunday filing tied to the offering showed revenue growing 8% to $41.8 billion in 2025, decelerating from 20.7% growth a year earlier. In the first quarter of 2026, Shein swung to a $99 million loss after the U.S. removed an import-duty exemption on small packages and the company booked a one-time accounting charge.
William Ma, chief investment officer at GROW Investment Group, said: "The company has missed the golden time to list." Shaun Rein, managing director at China Market Research Group, said investors and consumers are no longer as excited by the retailer as they once were, and that the delay cost Shein its window of opportunity.
Valuation pressured well below its 2022 peak
Shein faces pressure to trim its offering to a roughly $30 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg — down from the nearly $100 billion it commanded in a 2022 fundraising round and the $64 billion mark it held in 2024. Even so, that target still implies roughly 19 to 25 times fiscal 2025 earnings, Ma said, well above the roughly nine times peers such as PDD trade at or the roughly 11 times of established Hong Kong consumer names.
Lenny Zephirin, principal and analyst at The Zephirin Group, described the shift as one from a high-growth, tech-enabled fast-fashion platform toward a slower-growing global apparel retailer facing sustained margin pressure. He expects Shein's post-listing market capitalization to settle in the high-$20 billion to low-$30 billion range.
Hong Kong's IPO market has moved on
The Hong Kong stock market Shein is entering has also shifted. Zephirin said the city's IPO pipeline is now dominated by AI, semiconductor, memory chip, storage and cloud-infrastructure listings — categories Shein does not offer.
Younger shoppers pull back as rivals adapt
In the U.S., Shein's share of apparel, accessories and footwear spending peaked at about 5% in the first quarter of 2025 before turning negative year over year by the fourth quarter, according to Michael Gunther, an analyst at Consumer Edge. Rivals have adapted in ways Shein may struggle to match: Temu now leans on local sellers holding bulk-imported inventory, while Shein's on-demand model still ships new designs directly from China.
Shein also disclosed this week that its U.S. business is under investigation by the Federal Trade Commission for unspecified reasons and could face significant fines.
Source: CNBC
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