The S&P 500 closed Friday within 0.5% of its record after Nvidia and Meta drove another AI-led advance. Next week’s bank earnings, June inflation data and Fed testimony now stand between the index and a new high.
The S&P 500 gained 0.42% to close at 7,575.39 on Friday, less than 0.5% below its June 2 record. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.29% to 26,281.61 and the Dow added 149.60 points to 52,637.01. Nvidia and Meta Platforms carried the indexes higher into the close, even with trading volume running well below average.
Two names did most of the work
Over the week the S&P 500 advanced 1.2% and the Nasdaq picked up 1.7%, while the Dow fell 0.5% as the only major average in the red. Bank of America reiterated its Buy rating on Meta after Reuters reported an internal memo showing the company is making progress lowering the cost of its AI infrastructure. Meta’s 6% Friday gain pushed its weekly advance past 14%, its biggest weekly run since early 2024, and Nvidia added roughly 4%.
But the breadth undercut the price. Only 14.5 billion shares changed hands against a 20-session average of 22.4 billion, so the market went higher without conviction. Information technology gained 1.65% and consumer discretionary added 1.46%, leading eight of eleven sectors into the green.
The technical setup
On the charts, the S&P 500 recaptured its uptrend by overtaking swing tops at 7551.31 and 7577.92. Earlier in the week buyers set up the move with a successful test of the 50-day moving average at 7432.20, which now acts as support. Above the close sits the record high at 7620.90.
Yet the buying still looks tentative without a strong narrative behind it. Investors are still floating the idea that AI and semiconductors are providing the major support, but it may take a dovish Fed or softening consumer prices to encourage them higher at these levels.
What could move it next week
Three catalysts land in a five-day window. Banks report first, and their numbers will show whether consumers kept spending through the second quarter. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and Wednesday, the same week June inflation data prints.
Valuations leave some room. The index trades at about 20 times expected earnings, down from roughly 21 times in late May, while analysts expect earnings growth of roughly 24% year-over-year according to LSEG I/B/E/S. With the index one session below its record, all three averages need follow-through early next week or the setups reverse.
Source: FXEmpire
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