The S&P 500 closed a third straight week of gains before slipping Friday, and futures pointed to a mixed open Monday. Traders now price a much lower chance of a September Fed rate hike after last week's soft retail sales and inflation data, and the dollar hovers near a two-month low.
Futures point to a mixed Monday open
S&P 500 futures climbed 0.1% early Monday, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.35%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures, however, slid 59 points, or 0.11%. The moves follow a third consecutive week of gains for the S&P 500, which notched fresh all-time highs after a blockbuster earnings season, though the index ended Friday lower.
Stocks have kept climbing even as fighting continues in the Middle East and concerns persist around the artificial intelligence trade. Nationwide chief market strategist Mark Hackett said investors appear increasingly comfortable with the current backdrop, leaving bears with fewer narratives to draw on.
Fed minutes and retail earnings headline a quieter week
This week brings fewer catalysts than last, though the Federal Reserve releases its latest meeting minutes Wednesday. A slew of retail earnings are also on tap: Walmart reports Thursday, while Home Depot and Lowe's post results Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Investors will also watch the August Empire State manufacturing index and the NAHB Housing Market Index for August.
Dollar nears two-month low as hike bets fade
The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.18% early Monday, trading near its lowest level in more than two months. A surprise fall in retail sales and softer-than-expected inflation prints last week cooled bets on an upcoming Fed rate rise. Markets now price a 30% probability of a rate rise at the Fed's September meeting, down from around 50% a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Source: US Top News and Analysis
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