The S&P 500 has notched 25 all-time highs in 2026, extending a run of three straight double-digit annual returns. Nvidia and Micron Technology have driven a disproportionate share of the gains, with Micron's 208% year-to-date return generating nearly as much index-level impact as Nvidia's much larger position. Bloomberg data show fresh highs have historically preceded further gains, though 2007 proved the pattern can break.
A Record-Setting Climb
The S&P 500 has notched 25 all-time highs in 2026, according to Bloomberg Terminal data, as of Tuesday's close, following 39 in 2025 and 57 in 2024. Second-quarter earnings are on pace to grow 29% year-over-year, according to Bloomberg Opinion's Jonathan Levin.
That strength shows up in returns. The index is up 13.7% in total return through August 7. That is its seventh-best start to a year in 33 years. Back-to-back 20%-plus years are rare, but 2023's 26.3% and 2024's 25.0% returns marked the first time that had happened in two and a half decades, and a 2025 total return of 17.9% extended the run to three straight double-digit years.
Nvidia and Micron Lead an Uneven Rally
Nvidia contributed 1.49 percentage points to the index's gain despite holding just about a 6.9% weight, on a roughly 20% year-to-date return. Micron Technology added 1.13 percentage points on an index weight of only about 1.5%, powered by a 208% year-to-date return. Apple contributed 1.05 percentage points on a roughly 6% weight and a 15.5% year-to-date gain, rounding out the trio.
Micron's surge isn't a mystery: the company makes high-bandwidth memory chips that feed the same AI data center buildout powering Nvidia's business. That means both stocks are riding the same underlying demand wave from two different angles of the supply chain, linking their fortunes more closely than their business descriptions suggest.
History Favors the Rally, With a Caveat
Since 1996, fresh S&P 500 highs have preceded a median six-month return of 8.25%, according to Bloomberg's research. Thirteen of the 17 instances, or 76.5%, finished positive. The exception came in 2007, when a fresh high preceded a six-month stretch that lost 12.33%, just before the financial crisis.
Leadership can rotate quickly in the stock market. In 2025, seven stocks accounted for just over half of the index's gains, according to RBC Wealth Management. Nvidia's 15.5% contribution alone led that group. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies rounded out that list — a different lineup from the Micron and Apple names now driving the rally.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
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