SpaceX stock jumped to a near three-month high after Tesla beat its Q3 delivery estimates and prediction markets raised the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger. The rally pushed shares past a key sell wall, with ARK Invest and TD Cowen pointing to further upside despite two share unlocks later this month.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock surged 7.35% on October 2 to close at $158, its highest price in nearly three months. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock also edged higher the same day after the EV maker topped its Q3 delivery estimates.
Merger Odds Climb on Polymarket
Data from Polymarket shows a 63% chance that SpaceX will merge with Tesla by December 31, 2027, up from 47% on September 10. CoinGape's own prediction markets put the odds of a merger before the end of 2026 at 16%.
The prospect of a combined company may help explain the rally. Tesla's Q3 deliveries reached 486,532 units, above the analyst estimate of 457,000. SpaceX added its own momentum, launching five missions within six days, including a mission carrying Google AI chips into orbit for space-based data centers.
ARK and TD Cowen Stay Bullish Despite Unlocks
ARK Invest said SpaceX will likely increase its orbital cargo by 1,000 times by 2032, arguing the company could stay dominant in the space industry if it hits its target of launching 2.5 million tons annually by then. TD Cowen separately set a $200 price target for SpaceX stock, citing growth potential from AI compute leasing.
Still, two share unlocks loom in October 2026: 328.4 million SpaceX shares become eligible for sale on October 9, with a similar amount following on October 24.
Price Breaks Above Sell Wall
The stock had faced a sell wall between $151 and $154, but buying pressure pushed it through that resistance level on October 2, opening the path toward $165. An RSI reading of 65 points to strong momentum without overbought conditions, even after the stock gained 50% from its August low of $105.
A drop below the $147 support level would invalidate the bullish setup and could trigger another downtrend.
Source: CoinGape
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