Space Exploration Technologies now carries a $1.48 trillion market cap that tops Nasdaq-100 peers Meta Platforms and Tesla, even though its sales are a fraction of theirs. Since SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on July 7, the index has fallen 7% and the stock has dropped 25%, while the company posted a first-quarter loss of more than $4 billion. Wall Street still expects SpaceX sales to rise 87% next year, while the company separately values its addressable AI market at $26.5 trillion.
Space Exploration Technologies carries a $1.48 trillion market value that already tops Nasdaq-100 components Meta Platforms and Tesla, despite generating a fraction of their revenue. SpaceX joined the index on July 7 after its rules were changed to fast-track the addition. The stock has dropped 25% since then, while the Nasdaq-100 fell 7% and the S&P 500 lost 2%.
SpaceX trades at a premium to its sales
SpaceX's trailing sales are just $19 billion, giving it a price-to-sales ratio of 77 — far above Apple's ratio of 11, Nvidia's 19, and Amazon's 3. Its most recent quarterly sales grew 15%, slower than Nvidia's 85% or Meta's 28%. However, Wall Street expects SpaceX sales to reach $39 billion in 2026 and $73 billion the following year, an 87% jump similar to Nvidia's recent growth rates.
A widening loss until 2027
SpaceX lost more than $4 billion in the 2026 first quarter, even as its Starlink broadband unit posted a profit. Wall Street expects the company to turn profitable in the third quarter, with a consensus estimate of $0.08 a share. Analysts still forecast a $0.55 per-share loss for the full year, followed by around $0.65 in per-share earnings in 2027.
AI, not rockets, is the bigger opportunity
The company now spans three businesses — rocket launches, Starlink, and AI — after acquiring xAI earlier this year. It pegs its addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion tied to AI, and it recently acquired the AI coding startup Cursor. Goldman Sachs expects AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030. Morgan Stanley separately forecasts $3.4 trillion in SpaceX revenue by 2040.
Its Grok chatbot competes with OpenAI's ChatGPT, Alphabet's Gemini, and Anthropic's Claude, but SpaceX doesn't stand out among the Magnificent Seven on that front. The other six earned their premium over years of proven profit — SpaceX hasn't yet, and the market will judge it on that gap over time.
Source: Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance
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