Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen near a three-month low as doubt grows over a U.S.-Iran deal to fully reopen the corridor. Iran says it won't lift restrictions until Washington meets its demands, while U.S. officials say oil is still moving through the strait despite the lower ship count.
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz sat at a five-day average of around 13 on Tuesday, nearly the lowest level since May 12, according to a CNBC analysis of data from the trade intelligence firm Kpler. The count spans all vessel types, from cargo ships to oil tankers.
Traffic remains far below pre-war levels
Current traffic is about 90% lower than the daily average of 130 ships that transited Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. Tuesday's level also sat about 80% below the peak reached after the two countries' short-lived deal.
Wright says oil still moves despite the lower ship count
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Tuesday that oil exports through Hormuz have reached a seven-day average of nearly 9 million barrels per day as tankers transit the strait with U.S. military assistance. A single supertanker can carry about 2 million barrels. According to Wright: "Many private businesses undercount the number of ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz". He added that total oil exports from the Gulf states are averaging about 15 million barrels per day when pipelines are included, down from about 20 million bpd before the war.
Iran ties full reopening to U.S. demands
Iran's top national security official, Mohsen Rezaei, said Tuesday that Hormuz will not open fully until Washington agrees to Tehran's demands, according to the state news outlet PressTV. His comments came as talks between the two countries continue without a resolution.
An interim deal that collapsed
A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that a deal could come soon to open Hormuz with freedom of movement for ships, comments that helped drive an oil sell-off last week. Yet an agreement has still not materialized. The U.S. and Iran had signed an interim deal on June 17 to open Hormuz, with ship crossings surging to a five-day average of about 60 by June 26. That agreement subsequently collapsed as Washington and Tehran clashed over shipping routes left undefined in the deal, and Iran attacked tankers using the U.S.-protected route along Oman's coast. The Trump administration responded with more than a dozen waves of strikes against Iran and reimposed its naval blockade. Trump has pivoted back to diplomacy this month, though it remains unclear how much progress has been made.
Source: CNBC
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