TD Cowen has raised its year-end 2026 Bitcoin projection to about $109,000 from $97,500, reversing a cut it made five weeks earlier, and set a 2029 target of $280,000. The bank's research team had trimmed its outlook through most of this year before a stronger-than-expected third quarter prompted the reversal.
TD Cowen has raised its year-end 2026 Bitcoin projection to roughly $109,000, according to a report from Crypto Briefing, partly reversing a cut the firm made just five weeks earlier. The report said the bank made the revision on October 8 and also set a long-range target of $280,000 for 2029. The full research note was not available at the time of writing.
A string of cuts preceded the reversal
The change follows a run of downgrades from the bank's digital-asset research team, led by analyst Lance Vitanza. In February the firm was forecasting Bitcoin at around $177,000 by the end of 2026.
At the end of June it trimmed that base case to about $100,000 from roughly $140,000, and lowered its end-2027 target to $135,000 from $190,000. Then, on September 2, with Bitcoin trading near $78,000, it set a year-end target of $97,500, attributing the cut to recent price weakness rather than any change in its broader view.
A stronger quarter likely triggered the revision
The trigger for the latest revision appears to be the third quarter. In a Bitcoin Magazine interview published on Monday, Vitanza said the firm's price deck had assumed Bitcoin would end the quarter at $76,235, but it finished several thousand dollars higher. He said TD Cowen needed to reassess its longer-term targets as a result, while making clear the interview itself was not a forecast change.
He also pointed to an end-2027 figure of $132,750 and said the firm still expects Bitcoin to appreciate at a high-20% to 30% annual rate.
That growth rate does not sit neatly with the 2029 figure, however. Compounding $109,000 at 30% a year for three years gives roughly $240,000, so reaching $280,000 would require faster gains, a different starting point, or assumptions not yet set out in the reporting.
Strategy target held steady
The bank reportedly kept its $260 price target on Strategy unchanged, expecting dilution from share issuance to offset part of the lift from a higher Bitcoin price. Vitanza has argued that well-managed Bitcoin treasury companies could outperform the coin itself by around 50%.
Even at $109,000, the 2026 projection remains well below the $140,000 to $177,000 the firm was forecasting earlier this year. The next things to watch are the note itself, which should confirm whether $109,000 is a formal target or a base case, Bitcoin's fourth-quarter performance against the new projection, and whether the bank revisits its Strategy target when the year closes.
Source: Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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