CBS reported progress in talks between Tehran and Muscat over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, yet Iranian official Ali Reza Beghai said the strait’s status remains unchanged. WTI Crude Oil prediction markets have since priced a lower chance of oil reaching higher July targets.
Traders read the CBS report of progress in negotiations between Tehran and Muscat over reopening the Strait of Hormuz as a sign tensions may be easing, which could pull oil prices lower. But Iranian official Ali Reza Beghai declared the status of the strait unchanged, leaving the immediate supply picture where it was.
WTI prediction markets trim higher July targets
That reading shows up directly in pricing. In WTI Crude Oil prediction markets, the probability of oil hitting higher price targets in July has decreased, consistent with expectations of stable or declining prices. However, the lack of any immediate change on the water points to a cautious outlook rather than a resolved one.
The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments
The passage matters because it handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments, and when it is disrupted, crude oil prices spike and supply chains scramble. Disruptions during the ongoing tensions have driven prices above $100-$108 per barrel at various points.
Diplomacy has run in cycles. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding tried to extend a fragile truce originally established on April 8, with the goal of reopening the strait to commercial shipping. Oman has been mediating, pushing Iran to publicly commit to keeping shipping lanes open and refraining from attacks on commercial vessels.
Iran’s toll proposal and the next markers
Tehran’s headline ask is a transit toll of $1 per barrel for oil-laden tankers, which it proposes collecting in Bitcoin or stablecoins rather than dollars. President Trump declared in mid-July 2026 that the June ceasefire was effectively over after new clashes in the region, while calling at the same time for talks to continue.
For oil traders, the next markers are official announcements from the Iranian Ministry of Shipping on the strait’s status, developments in U.S.-Iran relations, and OPEC+ production decisions.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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