Tesla shares have cooled as investor attention rotates toward SpaceX following its June 2026 stock market debut. SpaceX's own outlook is brightening on a new AI compute deal, while prediction markets still see a Tesla-SpaceX merger as unlikely before year-end.
Tesla's stock has slowed as investors redirect their attention toward SpaceX after the rocket company's initial public offering in June 2026, Bloomberg Markets reports. The shift comes as Tesla contends with mixed financial fundamentals and rising capital expenditures, even as SpaceX shares have climbed sharply since going public.
SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen told a Goldman Sachs conference that the company has secured a data-center deal that could generate $1.11 billion in revenue each month starting in December 2026. Johnsen said the deal gives him "more conviction" that SpaceX can reach $100 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026. He also pointed to SpaceX's growing tie with Nvidia, which he said could lift the company's terrestrial computing capacity from over 2 gigawatts to between five and 10 gigawatts in 2027.
William Blair reiterated an Outperform rating on SpaceX stock after the compute deal. That confidence held even as 319 million shares unlocked on September 9 and another 59 million on September 10, with 328 million more due September 24. Pivotal Research has separately set a $220 price target on the stock.
Prediction markets tracked by Crypto Briefing put the odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger being announced by December 31 at 17.5%. The probability climbs to 46.5% for a merger by January 1, 2028. SpaceX itself still faces macro headwinds, including geopolitical tensions and the looming prospect of a Fed rate hike, that have kept its own shares in check even as the compute deal lifts sentiment.
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
