Tesla stock has gone nearly 11 months without a record close, but the wait is the second shortest of seven since its IPO. According to Motley Fool's analysis, the difference between droughts that ended in huge rallies and the rest probably comes down to whether profits were turning higher.
Tesla last closed at a record on Dec. 16, 2025, at $489.88 a share, 327 days ago. With shares trading near $346 at the time of writing, the stock would have to gain about 41% just to tie that mark.
Long gaps are not new for the EV maker. Since its June 2010 IPO, Tesla stock has gone 300 days or more without a record close six other times, based on daily split-adjusted closing prices.
The longest earlier drought lasted 1,133 days
The longest earlier stretch lasted 1,133 days, from Nov. 4, 2021, to Dec. 11, 2024. The middle of the six past droughts is around 650 days, almost twice as long as the current one.
Drops along the way were steep. In every one of the six, shares closed at least 31% under the old high at some point, and this time the low so far was $298.32 on July 29, around 39% below the December record.
Two rallies followed profit turns
Every drought eventually ended, but the aftermath differed. After the drought closed on Jan. 28, 2013, the stock rose around 652% until Sept. 4, 2014. After the one that ended on Dec. 18, 2019, shares climbed about 1,464% to the November 2021 record.
Profits probably separated those runs from the rest. Tesla made $143 million in the third quarter of 2019, a sharp turn from losses of $702 million and $408 million earlier that year. The other four runs were short, and the company lost $396 million in 2012 and almost $2 billion in 2017.
Operating income is still falling
The current picture looks different. Tesla's operating income fell 20% in 2024 and another 38% in 2025, and in the first nine months of 2026 it totaled about $2.1 billion, down about 30% from the same period in 2025.
Its author writes that the next record may matter less than what is behind it. A new high that comes with climbing operating income may look more like 2013 or 2019, while without it, the high might fade as fast as the last two did.
Source: The Motley Fool
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