Tesla is set to inaugurate a Semi truck factory and give an update on the Roadster in the coming weeks, following a Cybercab event earlier this month. Analysts say the events showcase ambitious products but are unlikely to fix investors' deeper concerns about slow robotaxi expansion and negative free cash flow.
Tesla plans to inaugurate a factory dedicated to its electric Semi truck and give a long-awaited update on the Roadster sports car over the next few weeks, following a Cybercab "launch event" earlier this month. Yet analysts say the run of product news may not be enough to satisfy investors. Tesla shares are down 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500 has risen 11% over the same period.
Cybercab event fell flat
The first of the three events already disappointed. Tesla built hype ahead of the Cybercab launch, which CEO Elon Musk said would bring a wave of Cybercabs to Austin, Texas, but investors panned the event for offering little new information, and the Cybercab remains in a limited Austin deployment. Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said progress on robotaxis has been slower than investors expected and that they want to see the service reach more cities.
Tesla currently offers robotaxi rides in six cities across Texas and Florida, along with supervised trips in San Francisco, and has listed Nevada and Arizona as targets.
Semi and Roadster carry long histories
The Semi and the Roadster have suffered repeated delays since Musk introduced both as concepts in November 2017. The Semi was originally meant to enter production in 2019, while the Roadster was targeted for 2020.
Each product still holds potential upside, according to analysts. The Semi gives Tesla an entry into autonomous trucking, an industry Morgan Stanley analysts see reaching a turning point in 2027. Separately, analyst Andrew Percoco estimates Tesla's Semi trucks could generate $17 billion worth of software revenue by 2040. The Roadster, by contrast, is unlikely to be a major revenue driver: Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said in a client note that demand will be limited by its high price, which has historically been quoted at around $250,000. Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein instead describes it as a halo car meant to showcase Tesla's technology.
Investors want cash flow and robot progress
CFRA analyst Garret Nelson told MarketWatch he is "skeptical the Semi or Roadster will do much to raise investor enthusiasm." Goldstein said sentiment instead hinges on robotaxi expansion, tangible progress on the Optimus humanoid robot, and improving free cash flow. Wall Street expects negative free cash flow of $9.7 billion in 2026, according to FactSet data, as Tesla continues investing in artificial intelligence projects.
Optimus itself has been largely absent from view in recent months, after Tesla canceled plans to show off an updated version of the robot earlier this year.
Source: MarketWatch
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