Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, says the Federal Reserve should raise its policy rate by 50 basis points next week, even as he doubts even a 25-basis-point move will happen. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.95%, just short of the 5% level he watches closely, while the 30-year sits at 5.37%.
Sri-Kumar told CNBC on Friday, September 11, that the Fed ought to raise its policy rate by 50 basis points at next week's meeting, while acknowledging that even a 25-basis-point move may not happen. The Federal Funds target range upper bound is 3.75%, unchanged for months.
Long-end yields already near his danger zone
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.95% on September 10, 2026, its highest level in the trailing year and up from a trailing-year low of 3.97% on February 27, 2026. Sri-Kumar's trigger for meaningful headwinds is a 30-year Treasury at 5.75% alongside a 75-basis-point spread over the 10-year. The 30-year already sits at 5.37%. The 20-year is at 5.39%.
A policy hike matters to homeowners and equity holders because of what it does to longer-dated yields, which price 30-year mortgages, corporate bonds, and the discount rate applied to future earnings.
Oil and tariffs, not just CPI, drive his call
Sri-Kumar framed the decision against structural forces rather than recent inflation prints. According to CNBC: "Oil prices are rising and the tariffs are being increased across the world." He added that those fundamentals matter more than the 8:30 a.m. CPI release. He noted core PCE has run above 3%. Inflation has failed to meet the Fed's 2% target for five and a half years.
What comes next
Sri-Kumar may not get the 50-basis-point hike he wants, but the bond market is already moving in the direction he fears. If those yields keep rising regardless of what the Fed decides next week, the bigger story may shift from the Fed's decision itself to what higher borrowing costs mean for mortgages, corporate financing, and stock valuations.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
